Without much doubt, more questions than answers will emerge from the New York University International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference, which starts in earnest Monday morning at the Waldorf-Astoria in midtown Manhattan.
Among the questions I have about this year’s event:
• How many fewer people will be in attendance than in past peak years, when the number of registrants topped 2,500? The good news is a smaller crowd gives us more elbow room in the seriously overcrowded meeting rooms and ballrooms at the Waldorf. I know industry politics are in play, but event organizers must find a way to permanently hold this conference at the Marriott Marquis. Sure, the hotel has little or no soul, but it can comfortably hold a hell of a lot of people.
• Any lenders who show up will undoubtedly be swarmed by the masses of developers, would-be acquirers and owners desperate for refinancing. My guess is everyone I talk to will say money is available for the right deals, but no one will be able to give me any concrete examples. (The exception, of course, will be those looking to finance deals in the $10-million-and-under range. But even those transactions are still few and far between.)
• I pity the guys from Smith Travel Research, PKF Consulting and HVS who will be giving the statistical bad news about the industry—or at least the bad news for the first half of the year. If tradition follows, STR will be more upbeat than PKF, but nobody will have real good news.
• There’s a lot of talk in the industry that billions of dollars of private equity are on the sidelines ready to pounce when pricing of hotel assets reaches the right prices for acquisition. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels issued a report the other day that 23 such funds have formed specifically to invest in hotels. Their combined war chest tops $20 billion. This topic will get a lot of talk, but pinning down the particulars will be tough for those of us reporting on the conference.
• What will be the buzzword or catch phrase emerging from this conference? Way back when, during another recession, Darryl Hartley-Leonard of Hyatt told everyone at the NYU get-together to “stay alive ‘til ’95,” and ever since conferences seem compelled to produce a similar sound bite. In recent years, when the industry was flying high, the talk was what inning of the lodging cycle we were in. I listened as it crept from the second and third inning into the eighth and ninth before the game was called because of recession.
• Finally, the big sport for a reporter at the conference will be compiling the predictions of when the industry will turn the corner back toward prosperity. My guess is they will range from the overly optimistic (it’s already started) to the seriously bleak (2011 or ’12). As is usually the case, the real answer is somewhere in between.

Still awaiting the final numbers on attendance and vendors, but here’s a quick recap of last week’s HD Expo & Conference. Foot traffic seemed a bit slow, not surprising considering the economy; rumor had it registrations were down from 24,000 to 16,000. I couldn’t tell if there were less exhibitors–it still seemed like a lot to me–but I didn’t see as many new products this year. Almost seemed like many companies were tweaking or enhancing existing products to showcase…Also not surprising considering the times.
Exhibitors I spoke to seemed moderately pleased with interest and traffic. The quantity may have fallen a bit, but many felt the quality was still there. No major news came from the conference portion of the event. The opening session was the usual state of the industry (which isn’t good, stop the presses!). The weather was hot and sunny and Vegas seemed a bit more lively than when i was there a few months ago. There was active construction on the huge CityCenter project, certainly a good sign with all its recent financing concerns and problems.

The news that a West Virginian businessman bought the Greenbrier Thursday was apparently a surprise to Marriott, which thought it had an agreement to purchase the troubled resort.
A press release from the resort Thursday stated Jim Justice and his company, the Justice Family Group, purchased the resort and The Greenbrier Sporting Club (a private residential development) and the new ownership intended to seek a dismissal of the resort’s bankruptcy filing. A Reuters story today reported Justice sold privately held WV-based coal company, Bluestone Industries, last month for $436 million. A Wall Street Journal story today reported the deal with CSX Corp. was for $20 million. The same story also quotes a Marriott spokesman who was surprised at the sale and said Marriott has a contract to acquire the resort and intended to fulfill those obligations. An AP story had this quote, from Marriott spokesman Thomas Marder: “We remain committed to our goal of managing the Greenbrier within the Marriott system.”
So now that the Greenbrier finally solved its labor strife, the resort may be on the cusp of an ownership battle. Justice, who’s not a hotelier, will probably need a management company. Perhaps there’s a happy ending for all three parties.

Unlike the U.S., the country of Qatar understands the tourism potential of Cuba. The state’s investment firm, Qatari Diar, this week signed a deal with Cuba to build a $75-million luxury hotel on Cayo Largo, an island off Cuba’s southwestern coast. Construction on the 250-room property begins next year, with opening scheduled for 2012.
It doesn’t take a genius, or a country with the natural gas resources of Qatar, to realize that someday soon—not next year perhaps, but certainly in the next decade—Cuba will be the big hot spot for U.S. tourists, once the stupid, counterproductive travel ban on most travel to the island from the U.S is rescinded. President Obama is moving in the right direction, recently easing restrictions on Cuban Americans who want to visit their homeland. But more needs to be done and quickly.
It’s time again for every citizen, and particularly those in the tourism industry, to lobby any elected official they can find to make this happen.
When 2015 rolls around, I don’t want to plan a trip to Cuba with my wife and only be able to choose resorts owned by companies based in Qatar, Spain or Canada.

Cambria Suites celebrated its 13th opening last week in Columbus, OH. It’s a respectable number for the upscale all-suite offering from Choice Hotels that debuted in Boise two years ago, especially considering the current economy, but everyone involved with the brand expected to have more open by now. Simultaneous to the grand opening celebration, the executive and development teams, including President William Edmundson and VP or Franchise Sales Brad LeBlanc, held a “roadshow” for potential developers.
Approximately 60 interested parties got an inside look at the hotel, not to mention a free lunch and dinner, and the chance to get to know the Cambria team. The show-and-tell attracted some major players and others looking for their first hotel project. The Cambria team, including the architect of the brand, Don Griner, gave tours of the property before Edmundson and LeBlanc went through a detailed presentation of the brand and its support from Choice. Just about everyone came away impressed with the offering, and many were extremely interested judging by the detailed and intense questions the execs got, but the big holdup or question mark was the usual: financing.
Edmundson said they weren’t alone. The economy and frozen credit markets have slowed, if not halted, just about all development. He expects to have 25 locations open by the end of the year and another five to 10 coming online next year. “Everyone else is stuck in the mud, too,” he said, but added Cambria was positioned to take off when credit thawed because of many projects ready and waiting to go.
It’s never easy building a brand from scratch, but the timing couldn’t have been worse during the past 18 months. Yet Edmundson, and all the way up to Choice CEO Steve Joyce, remain positive and committed to the brand. The numbers may not be what they wanted, but they continue to move in the right direction, a credit to the product and their perseverance.

What’s in a name? Plenty, if that name includes “Resort” or “Spa” or anything else that connotes ostentatious luxury. I’ve heard recently from several hoteliers who say (depending on their circumstances) they’ve lost or won business because the name of their properties included (or didn’t include) these once-innocuous, now inflammatory designations.
Now a lodging property in North Carolina is doing something about it: It’s dropping the word “Resort” from its name. The former Ballantyne Resort near Charlotte is now called The Ballantyne Hotel and Lodge. According to a recent story in the local press, owner/operator Joe Hallow of Bissell Hotels says it was done because “many of our customers are seeing a lot of pressure over meeting in hotels with the name ‘resort’.” Nothing else has changed about the property: It’s an upscale property part of Starwood’s Luxury Collection with a range of resort-like amenities, including golf and a spa. But don’t call it a Resort.
Whether it’s the name change or the beginnings of an economic turnaround, but Hallow says the property has begun to see more inquiries from companies looking to hold meetings at the resort, er, hotel. They’re not booking yet, he says, but the signs are encouraging.

Choice Hotels CEO Steve Joyce makes no secret that he’d like to add an upscale flag to the company’s current lineup of mostly midscale and lower brands. During a conference call last week with stock analysts, Joyce repeated his desire to buy a brand or two in the upscale and upscale extended-stay segments.
He specifically mentioned Doubletree and Sheraton as the types of brands that would fit well into Choice’s portfolio. He quickly added that his interest is “not in those brands in particular but that sort of price point where you’re running 3.5- to 4-star full-service hotels.”
I think Doubletree, in particular, is an enticing acquisition possibility for Choice. Doubletree is somewhat an orphan in the Hilton family: It’s very similar to but not the same as the full-service Hilton brand; nor does it have the strict business traveler focus of Hilton Garden Inn. Also, given Hilton’s recent legal entanglements, and the imminent move of its headquarters to Virginia, I wonder how many eyes may be off the ball when it comes to day-to-day business. Doubletree could easily get lost in the shuffle. Also, Hilton’s parent, Blackstone, has had its share of financial woes and perhaps could use the cash a Doubletree sale would yield. Joyce told the analysts he’s got the money to buy—now.
The addition of Doubletree, or even Sheraton, would give Choice additional clout and credibility among the traveling population, as well as more locations in coveted center-city and resort markets. And from development, marketing and even operations standpoints, a full-service brand like Doubletree would be an excellent complement to Choice’s burgeoning but still very small Cambria Suites brand.

The unions representing more than 1,100 workers at The Greenbrier have reportedly ratified new contract agreements, meaning the pending sale to Marriott is one step closer to happening. The ratifications, according to a spokesperson for the resort, still need accepted by a U.S. bankruptcy court before they become effective. The union agreements were a condition of the sale.

As Ed Watkins pointed out yesterday, first-quarter results of Marriott, Wyndham, Starwood and Choice weren’t good despite efforts to paint a positive spin. Choice, at the opposite end of the spectrum in offerings as Starwood, posted the best results of the four, at least by RevPAR standards. The economy and midscale franchisor saw domestic system-wide RevPAR fall 10.3 percent, not good, but better than the domestic results for Wyndham (13.4 percent), Marriott (16.2 percent) and Starwood (22.8 percent).
Choice’s net income was off 12 percent and it projected a 16 percent drop in RevPAR for the second quarter. The news wasn’t good for any of the lodging companies, but it certainly wasn’t unexpected. Although all four did beat most financial analysts expectations, whatever that means.