by Ed Watkins June 9th, 2008
The two most prominent family names in the hotel business—Marriott and Carlson—made news recently, all of it good.
According to today’s Washington Post, Marriott International took another step today in its eventual coronation of David Marriott as CEO of the company. After a successful run heading the global hotel company’s sales and marketing operations, the affable and boyish-looking Marriott was tapped to head operations of the brand’s managed properties in the key cities of New York, Philadelphia and Baltimore. The assignment includes overseeing the mammoth, challenging and highly profitable Marriott Marquis on Times Square.
While the younger Marriott and his dad, Bill, always sidestep issues of succession (the elder Marriott is a very spry 76 and seemingly has no plans to hang up his management spurs), the fact is that someday a new person will sit in the big office at Marriott’s headquarters in suburban DC. As I’ve said all along, it will probably be highly respected CFO Arne Sorenson to take the job once Bill leaves the company. But depending on when that happens, and assuming David Marriott continues to mature as a leader, Arne will probably just be a seatholder until David is completely up to the task.
In Minneapolis, home to the Carlson family empire, news came in mid-May that the feud (and lawsuit) between matriarch Marilyn Carlson Nelson and her son, Curtis Nelson, has apparently been patched up. The suit was quietly dismissed after mother and son reportedly spent the Christmas holidays together. Curtis became miffed last year and filed suit after it was clear his mother was passing him over to succeed her as head honcho of the company business. (Hubert Joly took the reins from Marilyn in February).
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by Ed Watkins June 6th, 2008
One message that came out loud and clear at this week’s NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference was that opportunities abound for those of you with deep pockets. Cash is preferred but financing works, too, if you can access it. More than one speaker opined that now is a great time to buy hotel real estate.
Of course, it’s not that easy. As HVS founder and valuation king Steve Rushmore pointed out, hotel values have bottomed out, and it will be a challenge to find financing for awhile (he predicts the next 12 months). Another problem he and other speakers and attendees brought up: Hotel owners have grown accustomed to rising values in the past five years or so and aren’t yet willing to believe that the tide has turned. As a result, in many cases a significant gap exists between what sellers are asking and bidders are willing to pay.
So what can you do: Acquisitions are available but financing is tight and sellers are skittish? It’s a good time to think about exploring partnerships that may be able accomplish what lone entities are unable to do. Look to other investors, previous partners, even competitors as potential dealmates. When times are tough, it’s time to get creative.
According to Rushmore, hotel values dipped five percent last year and an additional four percent so far this year. That’s especially dire news considering that values rose more than 20 percent in each of the years 2004 through ‘06. With lower values come fewer transactions: 20 hotel sales were booked through April, compared to 105 sales for the same period of ‘07. Clearly, nobody’s selling.
Finally, as is tradition, Rushmore gave his “weather forecast” for a variety of hotel markets. His recommendations of markets in which to sell hotels are New Orleans, New York, Boston, San Francisco, Miami, San Jose, Seattle and Baltimore. It’s time to sell if you have properties in Las Vegas, San Ant onio, Richmond, Greensboro, Hartford and Norfolk.
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by Ed Watkins June 4th, 2008
“Cautious optimism” is such a trite expression, but it perfectly fit the attitudes of speakers and attendees at this week’s NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference. Some speakers believe the sky is falling and the hotel business—particularly the investment side of the business—will be in a period of pain for many months. Others, especially those in the brand business, still believe the recession will be light, if there is one at all. The consensus among the brand crowd was that hotel rates will stay strong and acquisition and development money will soon begin to flow into the industry again. All in all, one could say the hotel business is at half-speed and will probably remain in that mode for the foreseeable future, at least through the rest of this year.
The uncertain times didn’t prevent a big crowd from showing up for the 30th edition of the conference, held this year at the considerably undersized Waldorf=Astoria in midtown Manhattan. According to conference chairman, Jonathan Tisch, more than 2,900 industry executives, including 10 percent from outside the U.S., were in attendance. The event raised $1 million in scholarships for New York University.
At the opening general session, Bill Marriott was generally upbeat about the near-term future, although he admitted that rates will be under pressure through the summer and beyond. He’s optimistic, however, that occupancy and ultimately RevPAR will continue to grow, albeit slowly. On the same panel, Barry Sternlicht of Starwood Capital Group was less optimistic. Check that: he was downright gloomy. “I see the downturn lasting for another 18 months, and it will get worse before it gets better,” he said. “Someone in the business will break ranks and start cutting rates. It’s already started in Las Vegas and the bulk of the new inventory hasn’t even come online yet.”
Jonathan Gray, co-head of Blackstone’s Real Estate Group, probably hit the right note on how to proceed in difficult times. Seeing the glass half-full, Gray said, “The greatest opportunities are when you can step in when everyone else is running away.”
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