Summer Forecast: Sunny Days Ahead as Gas Prices Fall

How quickly things can change. Last month at this time, we were worried about gas prices soaring past $4 and $5 a gallon this summer. Now a week before the summer travel season kicks off with Memorial Day Weekend, prices have steadied and even dropped, and all signs point to a lucrative summer of leisure travel.

A survey from TripAdvisor indicates 86% of U.S. travelers are planning a leisure trip this summer, up from 81% a year ago. A third of the 1,800 survey respondents said they planned to travel for Memorial Day, up 8% from last year. Gas prices, now declining, weren’t a factor in summer travel planning, according to 86% of respondents.

Deloitte’s summer travel survey yielded similarly positive results: 31% of the 1,000 consumers surveyed said they planned a Memorial Day trip, up from 24% a year ago. Beyond next weekend, 54% say they will take a trip from June 1 through Labor Day, up slightly from 52% last year. The survey said the cost of travel remained a concern, and many (66%) noticed increases in airfare, but only 16% altered their destinations or travel method as a result. The good news? Only 24% of the expected travelers said they’d spend less on lodging, down from 35% last year.

AAA projects 34.8 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more during Memorial Day weekend, up slightly (1.2%) from 2011. The survey found gas prices weren’t a deterrent for hitting the roadways, but only 7% of holiday travelers planned to fly, down from 12.5% last year. And like Deloitte, AAA’s Leisure Travel Index indicated hoteliers would be getting a boost from room rates. AAA’s Three Diamond lodgings should expect an 8% increase in rate, up to $160 a night, and Two Diamond properties can expect a 10% boost to $120.

The national average price of gas had declined 28 straight days as of earlier this week, according to AAA, and is now 22 cents lower than the April 6 peak average of $3.94 a gallon. Gas a year ago at this time was just under $4 a gallon. (One word of note for readers out West, prices on the Left Coast are going in the other direction, according to this USA TODAY story. California’s average price per gallon is $4.37, almost a full dollar ahead of Florida’s ($3.59).)

It’s not time to dance in the streets, but falling gas prices and consumer feedback like this are certainly positive signs as summer approaches.

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The Hotel Business Hits a Pothole

My guess is most of you are believers in small government and lower taxes. There’s a lot of sentiment in the U.S., as is being played out in the national election cycle, against raising taxes to fund government functions many deem unnecessary. Getting lost in this widespread mood of austerity is a major function of government that, if not addressed, could have major negative effects on the hotel industry and perhaps your business.

As colorful Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood says, the nation is “one big pothole.” Put another way, the nation’s roads, bridges, tunnels and other infrastructure are slowly, but surely falling apart, and there’s little appetite among members of Congress to raise the funds to turn the tide before the nation’s road system resembles the one in Nicaragua (I’ve been there, and believe me we don’t want that country’s roads.) Repairs and updates to the national infrastructure have traditionally been funded through an 18.4 cents-per-gallon tax on gasoline. As people drive less and drive more fuel-efficient cars, these revenues are falling and, as mentioned previously, hardly anyone in Washington seems prepared to increase that tariff. The last major transportation bill passed Congress seven years ago and since then, it’s only been a series of stopgap measures that have continued to sustain the Highway Trust Fund. And given that it’s a presidential election year, no omnibus legislation likely will pass until the new President and Congress take office.

No matter your political affiliation or how you weigh in on the guns versus butter debate, you as an executive in the hotel industry need to make sure the candidates you support have a clear vision on how to repair and improve our transportation system. One study of the problem says the country needs to spend $225 billion annually for the next 50 years to improve and maintain the transportation infrastructure. Yet, legislation languishing in the Senate to address the problem only calls for expenditures of $109 billion over two years.

No hotel can survive if guests can’t get to the property. As there is increasing fear about the safety of roads, tunnels and bridges (remember the bridge collapse on I-35 in Minneapolis in 2007?), an increasing number of families will be less inclined to take that 10-day automobile vacation each summer. Or, if lawmakers decide the answer is more toll roads and higher charges on existing ones, other travelers will forgo car trips or find other ways to conserve their vacation dollars.

Transportation should be a national priority, but for the tourism business it must be near the top of the list of priorities.

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Room Key Adds Inventory Through Travelocity and Drops Beta Tag

The coming together of six of the biggest and most competitive hotel companies to create Room Key showed just how important it was to the founding partners to create a lower-cost alternative to OTAs. Yesterday, Room Key removed its beta tag and officially launched to consumers with several new features, including inventory from the unlikeliest partner: Travelocity.

Yes, you read that right. Room Key — the brands’ meta search-engine answer to online travel agencies — worked out a deal with the big, bad wolf. And it was a smart move, and one that shows CEO John Davis is running Room Key, not its founding (and funding) partners.

“Are we going to do what’s right for us or for our consumers,” Davis says was the question to the board. “We want to take care of the customers, we’re too new to the game and we came to the conclusion we needed the added inventory. There was some gnashing of the teeth, but it was a quick resolution.”

CLICK HERE FOR A COMPREHENSIVE LOOK AT ROOM KEY

The white-label agreement with Travelocity provides all of the OTA’s inventory to Room Key, so consumers today have a choice of approximately 100,000 U.S. hotels compared to just the 30,000 properties from Room Key’s founding and newer commercial partners.

Consumers won’t know they’re booking via Travelocity, and a prominent note on Room Key’s site makes it clear that “A hotel logo means you book directly on that hotel’s website and enjoy these great benefits [lowest rates, loyalty points and others are listed].” If consumers choose to book one of the hotels from Travelocity’s inventory, Room Key offers a “book it” button versus “book at [brand logo]” and takes them to the white-label reservation page that appears to be from Room Key.

The boost in inventory brings Davis the hotels he hasn’t been able to secure directly from Starwood, Carlson Rezidor, La Quinta and other independents and small chains. He says it’s a “long-term contract” with Travelocity, but hopefully an “interim solution” allowing customers the breadth of choice needed to make Room Key viable now and give Davis the time he needs to add those other brands directly.

“As we bring hotels to direct connect, we take them off private label,” says Davis about the revenue-sharing agreement with Travelocity. “It’s s fair deal for both of us, a great tradeoff.”

Davis also has contracts with CRS providers Sabre, TravelCLICK and Trust International that will bring another 20,000-plus rooms of direct inventory to Room Key by this summer, including smaller chains like World Hotels, Leading Hotels, Kimpton and Rosewood. Now that the consumer launch has passed, he also says the focus will shift to adding the larger brand companies and some announcements could be coming within the month.

Other new features unveiled with the consumer launch on May 9: a new Facebook page with consumer contests, a short-list tool for trip planning and social-media sharing, and consumer reviews and ratings from TripAdvisor.

Room Key drew 1.9 million visitors in March and although not official yet, Davis expects closer to three million in April. “I am a little surprised to be knocking on the door of three million in the third month,” he says of the early results since the beta launch in January. The most important number: 25% of those are repeat customers. “That’s the win. … The strategy we’ve laid out with exit traffic is working.”

Davis says there will be some traditional online and print advertising, but the focus will remain on social networking and the exit-traffic pop-under windows from the partner’s brand.com sites. “There’s no use swerving the car, we’re getting the numbers, let’s not get crazy and spend a bunch of money on advertising when the initial plan is working.”

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A Lesson From a Hotel Industry Tragedy

On Feb. 18, well-respected state hospitality association official Tom Sponseller disappeared from his office in Columbia, SC, the first event in a long, multi-faceted tragedy that undoubtedly could have been prevented. This tale is a pertinent lesson for anyone in the hotel business—or any business—who serves on boards of directors of industry organizations or non-profit charitable groups.

As executive director of the South Carolina Hospitality Association, Sponseller was the executive in charge of the group’s finances. As many overworked, overstressed executives do, over time he placed confidence and trust in an employee, Rachel Duncan, to handle the association’s books. She betrayed that trust and over five years embezzled close to $500,000 from the group to support an online gambling habit. Just days before Sponseller disappeared, she confessed her crime to him. Distraught and full of remorse, Sponseller took his life. Duncan recently pleaded guilty in federal court to wire fraud and tax evasion and will undoubtedly spend years in jail. It was a tragedy for everyone involved, including the families, friends and associates of Sponseller and Duncan.

But, as I said, the tragedy could have been avoided and it provides a tale of caution for all of you. As a columnist for the Chicago Tribune recently noted, anyone who sits on a organization’s board of directors needs to remember one phrase: “trust, but verify.” And while groups such as state and local hotel associations must rely on paid staff to handle daily operations, including the handling and accounting of funds, the board members have the ultimate responsibility to fulfill their fiduciary obligations to the group.

According to the Tribune story and other news accounts, the chairman of the South Carolina association said he couldn’t remember when an audit of the group’s books was performed. “We made mistakes,” he told the reporter, seemingly with no trace of the understatement involved in the comment.

As respected business leaders in their communities (both geographic communities as well as communities of fellow hoteliers), it’s important hotel owners and operators volunteer to serve in leadership roles. Presumably, you have the business savvy, strong moral code, enthusiasm and creativity to help groups thrive and grow. But showing up periodically for meetings and accepting as true whatever staff members report is an abjuration of your responsibilities. Get involved, stay involved but remember: trust but always verify.

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Evolving AAHOA Still a Force in Lodging

After 23 years, the Asian American Hotel Owners Association is still going strong. Founded in 1989, AAHOA continues to grow and this year will top the 11,000-member mark, an amazing number. What those 10,000-plus members represent in the industry is even more impressive: more than 20,000 hotels totaling $128 billion in value.

For proof of that, you didn’t need to look any further than yesterday’s opening general session that included an industry leaders panel with moderator Buggsi Patel of BHG Hotels, Navin Dimond of Stonebridge Companies, Bharat Patel of Sun Development, Vinay Patel of SREE Hotels, D.J. Rama of JHM Hotels and Mit Shah of Noble Investment Group. The panelists, and their companies, represented 35,000 hotel rooms, said Buggsi Patel, adding that “you can see the power of the people in our association.”

“Who ever would have thought we’d get to 10,000 members,” asked Vinay Patel. “The biggest challenge and opportunity for this organization is how do we involve the second and now third generation that may have been disenfranchised with what AAHOA has been?”

The leaders discussed the future of the association and how to keep it moving forward and attracting new members. Navin Dimond suggested tweaking the mission statement as the group’s reason for being has changed through the years.

Bharat Patel was the most outspoken, saying the focus had to be on education and the association had to do a better job of attracting the younger generation he sees at all the brand conferences, but not at AAHOA’s annual event. “As long as we’re a political association and not a business association, those kids won’t be here,” he bluntly said. “We’ve made strides in recent years, but the entire board is a political circus. That needs to stop.”

“We’re not going to change that,” said Mit Shah. “Politics is an innate part of our culture … Instead, we need to be relevant for those 11,000 members. We’re not going to make everyone happy, but we need to make it as good as it can be for those owners.”

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Public Companies Signal Strong Year for Hotels

If the first quarter is any guide, the U.S. lodging industry may be destined for a record-breaking year. Like most of corporate America, U.S. public hotel companies had a great start to 2012: improving profits, rising occupancies and rates and, most impressively, strong gains in RevPAR.

Both hotel brand companies and ownership groups posted solid numbers in the first quarter. Wyndham said RevPAR at its domestic hotels rose 9%. Starwood, whose profits quadrupled from a quarter earlier, saw North American RevPAR increase by 7.1%. For Marriott, the RevPAR gain was 6.8%, while its group bookings for the remainder of 2012 are up 11%.

Hotel REITs performed equally well in the quarter. RevPARs increased 8.8% for DiamondRock, 8.4% for Pebblebrook and 6.7% for Ashford’s hotels, excluding those in the Washington, DC market. There’s no way to know for sure, but it’s highly probable private hotel companies have had similar success so far in 2012.

Even more heartening is yesterday’s news from Pegasus Solutions showing a sharp increase in hotel rates in recent months, especially for leisure business. In March, said the distribution technology supplier, leisure ADRs in North America rose a record 8.5%, beating the previous record of 7.3% set a month earlier. Corporate rates improved an equally impressive 6.5% in March. This is particularly good news because as every hotelier knows, increased rate means increased profits.

Of course, the wet blanket thrown on all this good news is the continued softening in hotel financing. By all accounts, few banks or other lenders are ready to jump back into the hotel sector of the real estate market, despite the indisputable improvement in lodging operating performance. Even institutions with money to lend still seem to view hotels as a risky play, even though all demographic and long-term economic trends point otherwise. At some point—perhaps after the fall elections and perceived political certainty crystallizes—lenders will be more comfortable to once again finance the expansion of an industry that seems assured to be the success story of U.S. business for years and decades to come.

Even though financing is generally scarce, there are a few lenders still active in the lodging arena, and a number of them will be featured in the new Lenders Pavilion at the upcoming Midwest Lodging Investors Summit. In the Pavilion, delegates will be able to meet with representatives of eight firms that are active lenders in the hotel industry. Delegates can pre-arrange appointments to see lenders or simply stroll through the Pavilion to chat with representatives from the firms. Go to the MLIS website for more information on the event, which will be held July 16-18 at the Hyatt Regency McCormick Place in Chicago.

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Omni Dallas Wins Design Poll

After two weeks and more than 5,000 votes, we have the readers’ choice winner in the second annual Lodging Hospitality Design Awards Poll. The Omni Dallas pulled away late in a close battle with the Radisson Blu Aqua Chicago. The Omni received 55% of the vote with 2,911 votes, while the Radisson Blu got 44%

The 1,001-room Omni Dallas was one of the biggest hospitality projects to open in 2011, a $550-million public-private development designed by BOKA Powell, 5G Studio and waldrop+nichols studio. The final result is a massive convention center hotel that reflects the dichotomy of Dallas, its commerce contrasted with glamour and glitz. The project earned LEED Silver certification.

Click here for the full results of the poll, and take a last look at the three projects and find photo galleries of each.

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Can Caribbean Tourism Solve Its Problems?

The first of three major hotel investment conferences focused on the Caribbean will be held this week in San Juan, the business, transportation and cultural hub of the region. Attendees at the Caribbean Hotel & Tourism Investment Conference will have a number of major issues to ponder that will shape the region’s tourism business through the rest of the decade and beyond.

Of course, nearly every conversation about Caribbean tourism begins and ends with airlift. Since no one has figured a way to drive to the Caribbean or from island to island, air service is the most critical issue and, disturbingly, the one that is out of the control of the hotel industry and other businesses reliant on tourism. American Eagle, which for many years was the dominant inter-island carrier for the Caribbean, is on shaky financial ground and reportedly will abandon its hub in San Juan that has served for decades as the gateway to the rest of the region for both tourists and residents. As the carrier has slowly ratcheted down its Caribbean service in recent years, other airlines, notably Jet Blue, have stepped in to add flights. It’s still a precarious situation.

The other airlift-related issue is the price of oil. Rising jet fuel prices mean higher airfares, particularly for flights to some of the smaller islands. Couple that with the financial pinch consumers are feeling due to higher gas prices at the pump, and it’s easy to see why some tourists may skip a Caribbean vacation this year. And rising energy costs make it more expensive to operate resorts in the Caribbean, which means operators will need to raise their room rates and perhaps even add the dreaded energy surcharges.

Even though many consumers look at the Caribbean as one place, it’s actually a collection of more than 30 independent countries and territories of other nations. And while potential visitors see it as one entity, nationalistic and economic factors seem to prevent the countries from cooperating on many issues, in particular developing a cohesive, integrated marketing effort that promotes the entire region as a prime destination. Several attempts have been made, but so far the results have been mostly lackluster and not long lasting. This is one challenge the region can solve on its own, but so far no country or leader has shown the skills, charisma and moxie to make it happen.

The other 800-pound elephant in the Caribbean tourism room is Cuba. At some point—tomorrow, next month, next year or five years from now—the walls between the U.S. and Cuba will finally crumble and American tourists will be able to openly and easily visit the country and U.S.-based hotel companies will be able to further develop the country’s tourism infrastructure. How that event will affect the rest of the Caribbean tourism industry remains to be seen, but it’s a worry for every tourism minister and hotel owner in the other 29 or so countries nearby.

So, as you can see, the delegates to this week’s CHTIC and the other Caribbean-focused conferences this year will have plenty to discuss. Unfortunately, if this year’s meeting is anything like the ones before it, very little will be accomplished to solve the significant challenges ahead.

I’ll be reporting from CHTIC on these issues and others discussed at the conference. Follow me online at www.LHonline.com or on Twitter @LHMagazine #CHTIC.

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Let the Good Times Roll

It’s not STR’s performance results, PKF’s forecast or Jones Lang LaSalle’s transaction tabulations that tell me the hotel industry has regained its footing. It’s my email in-box, which in the last week alone — the last two days in fact — has brought news of two new brands and invitations to rather extravagant press trips.

We’re probably not quite to 2006 levels of success, and still have a ways to go with the lending environment obviously, but the fact companies new and old are popping up with plans for new and unique brands is a sure sign the good times are here, or very near. On Tuesday, plans for Hemingway Hotels & Resorts were announced. The luxury brand will celebrate the life of the acclaimed American author and appear in locales with connections to him or his writings. Adventure sports, local foods and bars will reflect his passions at the properties.

Thursday brought news of an extended stay brand launch: Sonesta ES Suites, which will debut this June in Burlington, MA. The converted Staybridge Suites will serve as the model for a new brand from Sonesta International. (Speaking of IHG, it was last month when the company announced plans for a new brand in China, and the fitness-focused Even here.)

More plentiful has been the return of the press trip — invitations to travel journalists and sometimes even the trade press for hosted trips intended to showcase a new property, a tourist destination or even a city or nation. The hosts range from hotel companies or resort owners to city or even country’s tourism boards and often a combination of the two. The concept is simple: Bring a journalist in to experience a property and the surrounding areas and hope they write about it to spread the word to consumers. Invitations to Europe, Canada, the Caribbean and across the U.S. have come in recent weeks.

New brands and invitations to far off places weren’t a regular occurrence the last few years. The news instead was about the struggles or failures of brands launched just before or after the bottom fell out of the world in 2008, and the story pitches were about how operationally efficient some of the previously free-spending companies had become.

I wouldn’t necessarily trust my not so scientific study of the industry over STR, PKF or JLL, but it has to be a good sign that companies are getting more aggressive with their plans and marketing.

I have no idea if Hemingway Resorts will succeed, let alone come to fruition, but I’m hoping for an invitation to experience a grand opening in Cuba or maybe some bullfighting in Spain.

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Hotel Business Back In Political Spotlight

Once again, the travel industry has been caught up in a political controversy not of its making. As you probably heard, the General Services Administration last week kicked up a scandal by spending on a lavish $823,000 staff retreat in Las Vegas, parts of which ended up on You Tube. That, combined with some other questionable travel expenses, caught the eye of Congress, which vows to investigate and take necessary action. (This is the kind of scandal that’s ripe for election-year grandstanding.)

Unfortunately, the hospitality industry and hotels in particular are once again being demonized as a non-essential industry that just serves to facilitate fun and games by bureaucrats and fat-cat corporate types. We all remember the AIG fiasco of 2008 and President Obama’s intimation that we should all travel less in tough times.

Luckily, unlike past decades, we now have a lucid, strong, convincing and fast-acting advocate, the U.S. Travel Association, to blunt criticisms and reverse these counter-productive attitudes. The day after the story broke about GSA’s Las Vegas bash, U.S. Travel mobilized to make sure lawmakers and the media had the right message: the controversy is about poor bureaucratic decision-making, not about the value of travel. The message was delivered to Congressional leaders and the three committee chairmen who are poised to launch investigations which could easily include castigation of travel as a frivolous activity. U.S. Travel also issued a request to anyone in the travel business who may already been affected by this bad news, i.e., lost some government business, or has a success story of federal meetings they hosted that provided value to taxpayers.

With luck, Congress and the pundits will get the message and travel will be spared from this round of business bashing. If so, the issues will undoubtedly raise its ugly head again in the future.

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