It’s not the best time to own or operate a resort. Not only are you buffetted by the economic headwinds that have caused an extreme falloff in consumer spending, but you may also be a victim of the so-called AIG Effect, a media phenomenon that has many big corporations shunning board meetings, incentive trips and conventions at resorts, particularly those at the luxury end of the lodging spectrum. This curious morality play opened just after insurance giant AIG received a $150-bill-plus bailout from the federal government and then booked the five-star St. Regis Resort in southern California for a junket to recognize top-producing agents. They followed that event, which cost a reported $443,000, with a training session for financial planners at the Pointe Hilton Squaw Peak in Phoenix.

While I understand and feel the public’s anger over a company spending what seems like discretionary monies at a time when it has its hand out for a government bailout. The problem, of course, is proportion. Sure, the St. Regis in Monarch Beach oozes luxury and expense and wasn’t a good move from a PR point of view. But, as the company tried to explain, the meeting was scheduled months ahead of the bailout scenario and the purpose was to honor independent insurance agents, the company’s lifeblood and primary revenue source. Likewise, the meeting in Phoenix seemed to have a legitimate purpose (training) and, despite media histrionics, was held at a nice, but hardly five-star hotel.

Now unfortunately, the entire resort business will suffer as other companies—particularly those with public ownership or who may be in line for any federal assistance—will undoubtedly avoid the appearance of spending lots of money at high-end resorts. The losers, of course, will be the innocent owners, operators and employees of these properties who were just providing a service for a fee.

By the way, AIG has since cancelled 160 other conferences and events it had planned. Total revenue loss for the lodging properties where the meetings would have been held: $8 million.

The “cautious optimism” we’ve heard about all year seems a thing of the past. I wouldn’t exactly call the latest vibe the opposite of that—would that be reckless pessimism?—but a more realistic and somber attitude seems to be prevailing. At least that was the feel at the IH/M&R show in New York City this week.

From the opening CEO Leadership Panel on Saturday all the way to the those walking the aisles of the expo portion of the event, the mood felt a little downcast. No longer was “cautious optimism” the refrain. Just about everyone admitted things weren’t great, in some cases, not good at all, even downright bad. Yes, we’re in the midst of a down cycle. The good news—the optimism we’re left with—is business will bounce back and probably better than ever. We’re in for some tough times, another 12-18 months was the prevailing wisdom, but things will turnaround much quicker.

The industry vets who’ve been through this before sounded confident in that belief. The fundamentals of the industry remain strong and travel will always be at the core of this country’s people. When the economy turns around, the hotel industry will be perched to reap the rewards once again.

When your point of view is rejected, the only thing to do is boycott. That’s the feeling many political activists take when a ruling, election or even public opinion doesn’t go their way. While it’s a perfectly legal and American thing to do, a planned boycott of the Utah lodging industry couldn’t come at a worse time for the state or its tourism business.

There’s a nascent movement afoot to do just that among some Californians disgruntled over the results of last week’s election that outlawed same-sex marriages in the state. The loosely formed group is targeting Utah because Mormons and members of the church were heavy contributors to the fight to pass the measure. In retaliation, these activists are calling on sympathizers to avoid travel to Utah.

Should the movement gain traction, the state’s ski industry, which is just opening for the season and which draws a healthy portion of its business from the Golden State, will suffer.

During the late 1980s, a protracted boycott of Arizona over its refusal to honor Martin Luther King Day as a holiday hurt the state, especially in its efforts to land big-ticket events like the Super Bowl.

No matter how you feel about the same-sex marriage issue, it will be a shame if those owners and employees of tourism businesses in Utah suffer for actions they may not have been part of.

Interestingly, yesterday Bill Marriott wrote in his blog about the issue. He pointed out that Marriott is a public company not controlled by one individual or family and even though he is a Mormon, neither he nor the corporation contributed to the campaign to ban gay marriages in California.

A recent story in USA Today, titled “With recession looming, high-end lodgings offer luxe for less” suggested many high-end properties are getting creative in their marketing, and in some cases, cutting rates. A story earlier this week in the New York Times, “Dim Days for Luxury Hotels” hit on the same topic.

Cutting rates, everyone says, doesn’t drive occupancy and only lowers revenue. That was the lesson learned in the last down cycle after 9/11. Owners and companies are facing the same challenge again, from top to bottom. Hotels of all shapes and sizes are getting creative with special offers and marketing gimmicks to avoid cutting rates while still attracting business: two-for-one sales, stay three nights for the price of two, gas cards, gift cards, free spa treatments, etc. Is it working? Can it work? I don’t have the answers, but I’m guessing it can’t hurt.

PKF Hospitality Research recently lowered its 2009 projections: a 4.3 percent decline in RevPAR and a 7.9 percent drop in profit. The news wasn’t quite as dire in the Travel Industry Association’s recent report on the “2009 Outlook for U.S. Travel and Tourism.” It showed the resilience of leisure travel—only a .2 percent decline in ‘08, -1.3 percent projected for next year. Business travel didn’t fare as well, with a 3.6 percent drop in ‘08 and a 2.7 percent decline projected for next year. The other key element to the report was travelers are and will continue to trade down through this slowdown. They’ll travel, but maybe only to a closer destination, cheaper hotel and/or for a shorter stay.

I’ll be heading to New York next week for the International Hotel/Motel & Restaurant Show and I look forward to getting the pulse of the industry, as well as of the city that is home to our financial and cultural epicenters.

We shall see. And I, of course, will report back.

You could have made a lot of money in recent years by investing in either New York City hotels or timeshare development. Both of these segments of the hospitality business were thought to be, and rightly so, bulletproof to the prevailing winds blowing through the industry and the general economy. Upscale and luxury Manhattan hotels have had occupancies above 80 percent for years and rates have climbed into stratospheric regions (Have you tried to book a last-minute room in the Big Apple lately?). Likewise, the timeshare industry has posted double-digit sales growth every year for as long as anyone can remember. The vacation ownership business never even missed a beat following 9/11.

That’s all changed, and both the New York lodging community and the timeshare business are facing tough times for reasons that overlap and diverge. Manhattan occupancies in the first couple weeks of October—typically one of the biggest months—were down by more than 10 percent. To make matters worse, city government is talking about raising the room tax by as much as three percentage points to a whopping 18 percent. Likewise, timeshare tours and sales for most companies and markets have dwindled to a trickle. Westgate Resorts, one of the largest in the field, has already laid off several hundred workers and closed its Houston sales gallery.

Naturally, the economy is affecting both segments of the business. Fewer consumers, even those who considered themselves on Easy Street this time last year, have the dough to blow $900 a night on a hotel room in New York or the $20,000-plus it costs for a prime timeshare week in a branded property. In New York, the problem is compounded by the value of the dollar, which now favors Europeans less than it has for most of this decade. Add to that the near-total collapse of the financial services industry, and it’s easy to see why demand is down and will probably continue to sink in ’09.

For timeshare, the other bugaboo is the credit mess. The lock-up of the credit market hurts timeshare in two distinct and fatal ways: It’s harder for consumers to meet the tightening credit standards necessary to qualify for loans to buy vacation intervals, and timeshare companies make a lot of their money by bundling loans and selling them to third-party servicers, a business that’s nearly dried up for the time being.

Unless something drastic happens, 2009 will be tough for both New York and timeshare, but I’m confident both will rebound quickly and ahead of the rest of the hospitality industry once the general economy swings back into life.